Growth & Income
Jun 25 4:03pm ET †
Company Name Price 52-Wk Range P/E Market Cap Yield
ABT Abbott Laboratories 53.53 61.09 - 49.58 21.76 82,612,634,880 2.69%
CL Colgate Palmolive Co 69.68 81.98 - 63.75 21.98 35,384,131,120 2.30%
GIS General Mills, Inc 61.19 63.91 - 51.00 16.02 20,500,852,840 2.81%
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc 48.65 60.00 - 45.02 15.35 25,433,344,300 2.30%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 65.28 68.85 - 59.72 16.28 183,971,573,760 2.82%
KO The Coca-Cola Company 54.10 65.59 - 51.50 20.26 125,663,804,600 2.81%
PG The Procter & Gamble Company 63.49 75.18 - 60.76 18.73 193,834,017,650 2.52%
USB US Bancorp Del 29.94 35.25 - 27.86 12.37 52,112,546,040 5.68%
Bargain Growth
Jun 25 4:03pm ET †
Company Name Price 52-Wk Range P/E Market Cap Yield
ACN Accenture Ltd. 39.37 44.03 - 31.91 17.27 30,691,631,530 1.07%
CB The Chubb Corporation 51.07 55.92 - 45.65 7.22 18,665,472,160 2.58%
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc 24.70 34.24 - 21.77 19.30 145,906,259,200 0.00%
MCK McKesson Corporation 56.84 68.43 - 51.08 17.12 15,727,571,160 0.84%
MMM 3M Co 72.57 97.00 - 72.05 14.15 51,110,180,160 2.76%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 28.35 37.50 - 26.87 16.48 264,031,856,550 1.55%
PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation 72.59 86.91 - 58.10 13.77 12,175,593,290 1.16%
WAG Walgreen Co. 33.95 48.09 - 32.50 16.01 33,626,015,150 1.12%
Deep Value
Jun 25 4:07pm ET †
Company Name Price 52-Wk Range P/E Market Cap Yield
AIT Applied Indl Technologies In 25.68 35.68 - 22.05 11.78 1,086,161,280 2.34%
CAE Cascade Corp 44.42 89.87 - 39.70 11.22 480,890,920 1.80%
CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated 29.86 51.57 - 28.79 16.23 1,822,027,340 1.94%
NPK National Presto Industries, Inc 67.72 68.54 - 46.00 11.62 463,543,400 6.28%
PFE Pfizer Inc 17.88 26.15 - 17.30 15.96 120,961,722,360 7.16%
RBC Regal-Beloit Corporation 45.78 59.00 - 32.95 12.51 1,472,559,480 1.40%
UST UST Inc 55.83 59.95 - 47.40 16.09 8,253,739,710 4.51%
VFC VF Corporation 72.88 96.20 - 63.68 13.08 7,953,467,280 3.18%
Small Wonders
Jun 25 4:03pm ET †
Company Name Price 52-Wk Range P/E Market Cap Yield
ADTN ADTRAN, Inc 25.59 28.72 - 17.17 22.85 1,642,775,640 1.41%
AVX AVX Corporation 11.86 18.16 - 11.67 13.63 2,027,668,620 1.35%
FIC Fair Isaac Corporation 22.35 40.71 - 20.70 13.22 1,086,724,050 0.36%
GLBL Global Industries Ltd 18.03 29.14 - 15.30 15.96 2,078,624,610 0.00%
GW Grey Wolf Inc 9.39 9.60 - 4.85 14.01 1,679,467,230 0.00%
PLXS Plexus Corp 29.17 32.47 - 17.78 15.11 1,236,837,170 0.00%
PVR Penn Va Resources Partners L 27.62 32.90 - 18.00 22.83 1,404,642,720 6.52%
TSRA Tessera Technologies Inc 17.07 44.97 - 11.11 22.76 825,453,990 0.00%
Foreign Value
Jun 25 4:07pm ET †
Company Name Price 52-Wk Range P/E Market Cap Yield
BP BP p.l.c. 68.83 79.77 - 57.85 9.59 215,744,422,910 4.72%
DEO Diageo P L C 73.87 93.12 - 72.34 0.00 46,988,245,313 2.84%
NVS Novartis A G 53.65 59.17 - 46.19 19.09 141,830,373,950 0.00%
PHG Philips Electronics N.V. 35.33 45.90 - 34.32 5.73 36,964,577,780 2.63%
SNY Sanofi Aventis 33.32 49.04 - 32.11 0.00 87,613,007,440 0.00%
TOT Total S A 82.23 91.34 - 67.11 0.00 197,385,056,460 0.00%
UL Unilever Plc 28.85 38.25 - 27.91 0.00 37,433,307,750 0.00%
VOD Vodafone Group Plc New 28.65 40.87 - 28.19 0.00 152,234,582,700 0.00%
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:19am BST 19/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year
S&P 500 to reach 1050 by September
Fellow blogger and chatter "Moolah" shared with the chatbox this article. Thought I share it with you.
Full link here - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml
As you read this article, ask yourself several questions:
- What is the writer predicting?
- What is the basis and reasoning for his prediction?
- Is the picture he paints realistic or exaggerating?
- Has some of the fears been priced in, or is there more to come?
- Is it consistent with your entire observation of markets?
Last Updated: 12:19am BST 19/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year
S&P 500 to reach 1050 by September
Fellow blogger and chatter "Moolah" shared with the chatbox this article. Thought I share it with you.
Full link here - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml
As you read this article, ask yourself several questions:
- What is the writer predicting?
- What is the basis and reasoning for his prediction?
- Is the picture he paints realistic or exaggerating?
- Has some of the fears been priced in, or is there more to come?
- Is it consistent with your entire observation of markets?
Friday, June 20, 2008
God
A Little Boy's Explanation of God --
- Out of the mouths of the Babes...
I certainly don't think an adult could explain this more beautifully!!!
It was written by an 8-year-old named Danny Dutton, who is living in Chula Vista, CA. He wrote it for his Third Grade homework assignment, to 'Explain God.' I wonder if any of us could have done as well?
(...and he had such an assignment, in California, and someone published it, I guess miracles do happen!!!...]
EXPLANATION OF GOD:
'One of God's main jobs is making people. He makes them to replace the ones that die, so there will be enough people to take care of things on earth. He doesn't make grownups, just babies. I think because they are smaller and easier to make. That way he doesn't have to take up his valuable time teaching them to talk and walk. He can just leave that to mothers and fathers.'
'God's second most important job is listening to prayers. An awful lot of this goes on, since some people, like preachers and things, pray at times beside bedtime. God doesn't have time to listen to the radio or TV because of this. Because he hears everything, there must be a terrible lot of noise in his ears, unless he has thought of a way to turn it off.'
'God sees everything and hears everything and is everywhere which keeps Him pretty busy. So you shouldn't go wasting his time by going over your mom and dad's head asking for something they said you couldn't have.'
'Atheists are people who don't believe in God. I don't think there are any in Chula Vista. At least there aren't any who come to our church.'
'Jesus is God's Son. He used to do all the hard work, like walking on water and performing miracles and trying to teach the people who didn't want to learn about God. They finally got tired of him preaching to them and they crucified him But he was good and kind, like his father, and he told his father that they didn't know what they were doing and to forgive them and God said O.K.'
'His dad (God) appreciated everything that he had done and all his hard work on earth so he told him he didn't have to go out on the road anymore. He could stay in heaven. So he did. And now he helps his dad out by listening to prayers and seeing things which are important for God to take care of and which ones he can take care of himself without having to bother God. Like a secretary, only more important.'
'You can pray anytime you want and they are sure to help you because they got it worked out so one of them is on duty all the time.'
'You should always go to church on Sunday because it makes God happy, and if there's anybody you want to make happy, it's God!
Don't skip church to do something you think will be more fun like going to the beach. This is wrong. And besides the sun doesn't come out at the beach until noon anyway.'
'If you don't believe in God, besides being an atheist, you will be very lonely, because your parents can't go everywhere with you, like to camp, but God can. It is good to know He's around you when you're scared, in the dark or when you can't swim and you get thrown into real deep water by big kids.'
'But...you shouldn't just always think of what God can do for you. I figure God put me here and he can take me back anytime he pleases.
And...that's why I believe in God.'
- Out of the mouths of the Babes...
I certainly don't think an adult could explain this more beautifully!!!
It was written by an 8-year-old named Danny Dutton, who is living in Chula Vista, CA. He wrote it for his Third Grade homework assignment, to 'Explain God.' I wonder if any of us could have done as well?
(...and he had such an assignment, in California, and someone published it, I guess miracles do happen!!!...]
EXPLANATION OF GOD:
'One of God's main jobs is making people. He makes them to replace the ones that die, so there will be enough people to take care of things on earth. He doesn't make grownups, just babies. I think because they are smaller and easier to make. That way he doesn't have to take up his valuable time teaching them to talk and walk. He can just leave that to mothers and fathers.'
'God's second most important job is listening to prayers. An awful lot of this goes on, since some people, like preachers and things, pray at times beside bedtime. God doesn't have time to listen to the radio or TV because of this. Because he hears everything, there must be a terrible lot of noise in his ears, unless he has thought of a way to turn it off.'
'God sees everything and hears everything and is everywhere which keeps Him pretty busy. So you shouldn't go wasting his time by going over your mom and dad's head asking for something they said you couldn't have.'
'Atheists are people who don't believe in God. I don't think there are any in Chula Vista. At least there aren't any who come to our church.'
'Jesus is God's Son. He used to do all the hard work, like walking on water and performing miracles and trying to teach the people who didn't want to learn about God. They finally got tired of him preaching to them and they crucified him But he was good and kind, like his father, and he told his father that they didn't know what they were doing and to forgive them and God said O.K.'
'His dad (God) appreciated everything that he had done and all his hard work on earth so he told him he didn't have to go out on the road anymore. He could stay in heaven. So he did. And now he helps his dad out by listening to prayers and seeing things which are important for God to take care of and which ones he can take care of himself without having to bother God. Like a secretary, only more important.'
'You can pray anytime you want and they are sure to help you because they got it worked out so one of them is on duty all the time.'
'You should always go to church on Sunday because it makes God happy, and if there's anybody you want to make happy, it's God!
Don't skip church to do something you think will be more fun like going to the beach. This is wrong. And besides the sun doesn't come out at the beach until noon anyway.'
'If you don't believe in God, besides being an atheist, you will be very lonely, because your parents can't go everywhere with you, like to camp, but God can. It is good to know He's around you when you're scared, in the dark or when you can't swim and you get thrown into real deep water by big kids.'
'But...you shouldn't just always think of what God can do for you. I figure God put me here and he can take me back anytime he pleases.
And...that's why I believe in God.'
Scrambled, jumbled words and language recognition theory
Arinocdcg to rencet rseaerch, the hmuan brian is plrectfey albe to raed colmpex pasasges of txet caiinontng wdors in whcih the lrettes hvae been jmblued, pvioedrd the frsit and lsat leetrts rmeian in teihr crcerot piiotsons.
The fcat taht you are ridenag tihs now wtih reaitvle esae is poorf of the thoery.
Wehre did all of tihs strat?
It smees taht the trehoy orgteiinad form a 1976 ppaer at the Uvnitsriey of Nigaonthtm wtiertn by Graahm Rwsnailon of Asrhodelt, wichh gvae rsie to an acirlte wihch aaeprrped in the 'Narute' pbuolitaicn in 1999.
A fhrtuer alircte in the Tiems neppeawsr in Speemebtr 2003 pivroedd mroe eanxopiatln auobt the peohoemnnn.
In the Tmeis aitlcre, Dr Reoaesln MhActcry, a neruo-phylcoogsy lruecter form Knig’s Ceglloe, Cgmdbriae, ssegegtud taht hmuan bnegis are albe to usnatdnerd jeublmd up wdors buaecse the hmaun bairn parimliry raeds the mannieg rehatr tahn the piothenc cnontet of wdors (the sdnuos of the wrdos and leertts).
Dr McRtcahy was qoteud as saiyng, taht "...if you can acaitinpte waht the nxet wrod in a snnetece cloud be, you wlil not nslsciareey ntcoie if smoe of the leettrs in taht wrod are out of pclae...", and she aslo taht she was sepsrruid at jsut how rosubt the barin’s rgceotnioin aeiibtils had been pverod to be. "The hamun biarn is a lot mroe toanelrt tahn we had pahrpes risaeled, and it has to cpoe wtih diisputrng in eevydray lfie."
The torehy pdeoivrs a fiatsincang pprciesetve on mderon cutonacniimmos and the dmveelnoept of laguange.
The terohy aslo hples to eaipxln the doepmevnlet of merodn txet mseniagsg lagunage, and how the hamun biran so rlaidey utendrnsdas atboivbinears and cimtonobnais of lrettes and nbrmeus mainkg new 'wdros' whcih we've nveer seen beofre and yet stlil are albe to usterdannd alsomt iammeiltdey. For emxpale: 'c u lte8r', wihch you'll nitcoe you can utransnded eevn thgouh it's jmulebd.
One of the gerat lsneoss form tihs troehy dmsttnareoes the rmaaebrlke pweor of the huamn biarn.
Wehn we are yonug we not olny lraen how to raed, but aslo ibcerndily and uninaenionltlty lraen how to raed waht wuold by nmoral cooevntnin be decerbisd as uettr nnsosnee.
Tihs bges qtuseonis abuot the dicrieotn of laagngue eolotuvin.
Waht wlil lgganaue look lkie in geotrnaiens to cmoe?
Whtuoit dobut hmuan binegs are albe to asobrb pvrseiogerlsy mroe maening form pvolesesrrigy rucdnieg anotmus of wrdos and lrttees.
We now raed in shohtnrad - and iamegs - and sfcginltianiy we are beord by aiytnhng taht is too lhtngey.
Posorneiafl witerrs need to get tehir pniot asorcs in jsut a few seodcns, or the raeedr's anitttoen is lsot.
The jmbleud wdros torhey datrmneeosts jsut how caalbpe the biarn is at arnboibsg mneaing far mroe qilcuky tahn msot wrietrs wuold eevr iaimnge.
And a fnail daioertomstnn of how celver yuor barin is - can you raed tihs?...
'if' by rrdayud kipilng
If you can keep yuor haed wehn all aobut you
Are lnsiog thiers and bianmlg it on you,
If you can turst yusrleof wehn all men dbout you,
But mkae alanowlce for tehir duontbig too;
If you can wiat and not be tierd by wntiaig,
Or bineg leid auobt, don't dael in leis,
Or benig htead, don't gvie way to hiatng,
And yet don't look too good, nor tlak too wsie:
If you can darem - and not mkae dmaers yuor msater,
If you can tihnk - and not mkae ttghhous yuor aim;
If you can meet wtih Tpumirh and Dtseasir
And traet thsoe two iortmspos jsut the smae;
If you can baer to haer the trtuh you've spoekn
Tesiwtd by kevnas to mkae a tarp for floos,
Or wtcah the tinhgs you gvae yuor lfie to, breokn,
And sotop and bluid 'em up wtih wron-out tolos:
If you can mkae one haep of all yuor wininngs
And rsik it all on one trun of ptich-and-tsos,
And lsoe, and sratt aiagn at yuor bniiggnens
And nveer baerth a wrod aoubt yuor lsos;
If you can froce yuor hraet and nrvee and sniew
To svree yuor trun lnog afetr tehy are gnoe,
And so hlod on wehn trehe is nhontig in you
Epxcet the Wlil whcih syas to tehm: "Hlod on!"
If you can tlak wtih crdwos and keep yuor vturie,
Or wlak wtih kngis - nor lsoe the cmmoon tcuoh,
If nheeitr feos nor liovng fdriens can hrut you,
If all men cunot wtih you, but nnoe too mcuh;
If you can flil the uigrnonvfig mnuite
Wtih stxiy snceods' wotrh of dinstace run,
Yuros is the Etrah and envyeirthg taht's in it,
And - whcih is mroe - you'll be a Man, my son!
Rrdayud Kipilng (uerblcamsnd vrieosn of Ryrduad Kiinlpg's iynatpasiionrl 'If' peom hree)
The fcat taht you are ridenag tihs now wtih reaitvle esae is poorf of the thoery.
Wehre did all of tihs strat?
It smees taht the trehoy orgteiinad form a 1976 ppaer at the Uvnitsriey of Nigaonthtm wtiertn by Graahm Rwsnailon of Asrhodelt, wichh gvae rsie to an acirlte wihch aaeprrped in the 'Narute' pbuolitaicn in 1999.
A fhrtuer alircte in the Tiems neppeawsr in Speemebtr 2003 pivroedd mroe eanxopiatln auobt the peohoemnnn.
In the Tmeis aitlcre, Dr Reoaesln MhActcry, a neruo-phylcoogsy lruecter form Knig’s Ceglloe, Cgmdbriae, ssegegtud taht hmuan bnegis are albe to usnatdnerd jeublmd up wdors buaecse the hmaun bairn parimliry raeds the mannieg rehatr tahn the piothenc cnontet of wdors (the sdnuos of the wrdos and leertts).
Dr McRtcahy was qoteud as saiyng, taht "...if you can acaitinpte waht the nxet wrod in a snnetece cloud be, you wlil not nslsciareey ntcoie if smoe of the leettrs in taht wrod are out of pclae...", and she aslo taht she was sepsrruid at jsut how rosubt the barin’s rgceotnioin aeiibtils had been pverod to be. "The hamun biarn is a lot mroe toanelrt tahn we had pahrpes risaeled, and it has to cpoe wtih diisputrng in eevydray lfie."
The torehy pdeoivrs a fiatsincang pprciesetve on mderon cutonacniimmos and the dmveelnoept of laguange.
The terohy aslo hples to eaipxln the doepmevnlet of merodn txet mseniagsg lagunage, and how the hamun biran so rlaidey utendrnsdas atboivbinears and cimtonobnais of lrettes and nbrmeus mainkg new 'wdros' whcih we've nveer seen beofre and yet stlil are albe to usterdannd alsomt iammeiltdey. For emxpale: 'c u lte8r', wihch you'll nitcoe you can utransnded eevn thgouh it's jmulebd.
One of the gerat lsneoss form tihs troehy dmsttnareoes the rmaaebrlke pweor of the huamn biarn.
Wehn we are yonug we not olny lraen how to raed, but aslo ibcerndily and uninaenionltlty lraen how to raed waht wuold by nmoral cooevntnin be decerbisd as uettr nnsosnee.
Tihs bges qtuseonis abuot the dicrieotn of laagngue eolotuvin.
Waht wlil lgganaue look lkie in geotrnaiens to cmoe?
Whtuoit dobut hmuan binegs are albe to asobrb pvrseiogerlsy mroe maening form pvolesesrrigy rucdnieg anotmus of wrdos and lrttees.
We now raed in shohtnrad - and iamegs - and sfcginltianiy we are beord by aiytnhng taht is too lhtngey.
Posorneiafl witerrs need to get tehir pniot asorcs in jsut a few seodcns, or the raeedr's anitttoen is lsot.
The jmbleud wdros torhey datrmneeosts jsut how caalbpe the biarn is at arnboibsg mneaing far mroe qilcuky tahn msot wrietrs wuold eevr iaimnge.
And a fnail daioertomstnn of how celver yuor barin is - can you raed tihs?...
'if' by rrdayud kipilng
If you can keep yuor haed wehn all aobut you
Are lnsiog thiers and bianmlg it on you,
If you can turst yusrleof wehn all men dbout you,
But mkae alanowlce for tehir duontbig too;
If you can wiat and not be tierd by wntiaig,
Or bineg leid auobt, don't dael in leis,
Or benig htead, don't gvie way to hiatng,
And yet don't look too good, nor tlak too wsie:
If you can darem - and not mkae dmaers yuor msater,
If you can tihnk - and not mkae ttghhous yuor aim;
If you can meet wtih Tpumirh and Dtseasir
And traet thsoe two iortmspos jsut the smae;
If you can baer to haer the trtuh you've spoekn
Tesiwtd by kevnas to mkae a tarp for floos,
Or wtcah the tinhgs you gvae yuor lfie to, breokn,
And sotop and bluid 'em up wtih wron-out tolos:
If you can mkae one haep of all yuor wininngs
And rsik it all on one trun of ptich-and-tsos,
And lsoe, and sratt aiagn at yuor bniiggnens
And nveer baerth a wrod aoubt yuor lsos;
If you can froce yuor hraet and nrvee and sniew
To svree yuor trun lnog afetr tehy are gnoe,
And so hlod on wehn trehe is nhontig in you
Epxcet the Wlil whcih syas to tehm: "Hlod on!"
If you can tlak wtih crdwos and keep yuor vturie,
Or wlak wtih kngis - nor lsoe the cmmoon tcuoh,
If nheeitr feos nor liovng fdriens can hrut you,
If all men cunot wtih you, but nnoe too mcuh;
If you can flil the uigrnonvfig mnuite
Wtih stxiy snceods' wotrh of dinstace run,
Yuros is the Etrah and envyeirthg taht's in it,
And - whcih is mroe - you'll be a Man, my son!
Rrdayud Kipilng (uerblcamsnd vrieosn of Ryrduad Kiinlpg's iynatpasiionrl 'If' peom hree)
IF
The lines "If you can meet with triumph and disaster / And treat those two imposters just the same" are inscribed above the entryway to Centre Court at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, Wimbledon, London. The original version of this inscription appears briefly in Alfred Hitchcock's film Strangers on a Train, with the "two imposters" line showing symbolically during a conversation before the final match, even though the character of Guy Haines is supposed to be playing tennis in New England. Sergeant Lewis also mentions it in the Inspector Morse episode The Way Through the Woods.
'if' by rudyard kipling
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master,
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Rudyard Kipling (1865-1936)
'if' by rudyard kipling
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master,
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Rudyard Kipling (1865-1936)
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
nibble first
STAR 16 June
Muda Holdings - Asiafile bought 17.5M shares (6.15%)@ 78 sen (total RM 11.8 M) closing @ 80.5 sen on 13 june, asiafile chairman & major SH also appears as 3rd biggest SH with 9.6 M shares (3.4%)@ 8 May. Price range 35 sen to 60 sen (early Jan to early May. 1. Asiafile long time customer of Muda from whom it buys paperboard (knows the business well) 2. Able to pass some costs increase to customers and prices of core product - test liners andcorrugating medium remains buoyant. 3. 1stQ profit - RM 18.8M eps 6.6 sen, likely sustainable over subsequent quarters = 26 sen or PE of 3. Low valuation even for cyclical industry.
Ancom - Pacific & Orient bought 32 M warrants before suspension on 5June @ 1 to 1.5 sen. exercise price RM 1. Currently owns 6.6 M warrants, 26.9 M shares + 32 M warrants = 65 M shares upon full exercise (= 20%). Close at 96 sen on 13 June. Special dividend or capital repayment in offing. Received special dividend of 68 sen/share (RM 79 M)from Tamco Corporate (a related Coy)+ 30 sen a share capital repayment from Tamco. With this inflow, expected to offer same to shareholders.
Muda Holdings - Asiafile bought 17.5M shares (6.15%)@ 78 sen (total RM 11.8 M) closing @ 80.5 sen on 13 june, asiafile chairman & major SH also appears as 3rd biggest SH with 9.6 M shares (3.4%)@ 8 May. Price range 35 sen to 60 sen (early Jan to early May. 1. Asiafile long time customer of Muda from whom it buys paperboard (knows the business well) 2. Able to pass some costs increase to customers and prices of core product - test liners andcorrugating medium remains buoyant. 3. 1stQ profit - RM 18.8M eps 6.6 sen, likely sustainable over subsequent quarters = 26 sen or PE of 3. Low valuation even for cyclical industry.
Ancom - Pacific & Orient bought 32 M warrants before suspension on 5June @ 1 to 1.5 sen. exercise price RM 1. Currently owns 6.6 M warrants, 26.9 M shares + 32 M warrants = 65 M shares upon full exercise (= 20%). Close at 96 sen on 13 June. Special dividend or capital repayment in offing. Received special dividend of 68 sen/share (RM 79 M)from Tamco Corporate (a related Coy)+ 30 sen a share capital repayment from Tamco. With this inflow, expected to offer same to shareholders.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
mid year sale???
MFB
Faber < $0.96
Dialog < $1.35
Parkson < $5.10
Bursa < $7.80
TMI < $6.90
Maybulk < $3.70
Sapuracrest < $1.35
KNM < $6.10
Opus < $0.94
Hap Seng Consolidated < $2.80
RCE Cap < $0.55
Evergreen < $1.40
Wah Seong < $2.14
Ranhill < $1.08
Kinsteel < $1.55
You will note that some are actually worth collecting already (as they have moved lower than these target prices) based on those target prices.
Faber - Issued capital: 363m 52 week High-Low: 1.86-0.75
The key component in Faber is Faber Medi-Serve which they own 69.96% and it contributes 60% of Faber's PBT. Faber has announced it will acquire the remaining 30% from Medlux Overseas for RM85.5m and the redemption of RM115 RCPs from Jeram Bintang Sdn Bhd. Faber is buying at just 7x 2007 PER for FMS. The cleansing of RCPs would erase the potential 26% dilution effect. Hence the deal is very good for Faber's shares.The other timely deal was the disposal of Sheraton Hanoi to Berjaya Land which raised Faber's cash hoard to RM438m or a net cash balance of RM247m. FMS earned RM41m PBT in 2007. Net eps for 2008 should hit 20 sen, and looking at the current share price of 94 sen, its a steal literally.
Why no action? Well, nobody seems to be following the stock for now. UEM owns 38%, the rest are pretty well spread. Although I am not a fan of sum-of-the-parts as a catalyst, its worth noting that the share has a SOTP of at least RM2.70 per share. Once UEM gets around to it, its a very brilliant privatisation. Maybe its so small to UEM now. Still, a bargain is a bargain. One of the major concerns was as to whether Faber's HFM concessions in the opposition-controlled northern states will be reviewed. The recent submission for approval for extension should assuage investors' fears.There is no target price, but buying below RM1.00 presents little risk. One should be able to reap at least 50% return when market perks back up to 1,400.
Faber < $0.96
Dialog < $1.35
Parkson < $5.10
Bursa < $7.80
TMI < $6.90
Maybulk < $3.70
Sapuracrest < $1.35
KNM < $6.10
Opus < $0.94
Hap Seng Consolidated < $2.80
RCE Cap < $0.55
Evergreen < $1.40
Wah Seong < $2.14
Ranhill < $1.08
Kinsteel < $1.55
You will note that some are actually worth collecting already (as they have moved lower than these target prices) based on those target prices.
Faber - Issued capital: 363m 52 week High-Low: 1.86-0.75
The key component in Faber is Faber Medi-Serve which they own 69.96% and it contributes 60% of Faber's PBT. Faber has announced it will acquire the remaining 30% from Medlux Overseas for RM85.5m and the redemption of RM115 RCPs from Jeram Bintang Sdn Bhd. Faber is buying at just 7x 2007 PER for FMS. The cleansing of RCPs would erase the potential 26% dilution effect. Hence the deal is very good for Faber's shares.The other timely deal was the disposal of Sheraton Hanoi to Berjaya Land which raised Faber's cash hoard to RM438m or a net cash balance of RM247m. FMS earned RM41m PBT in 2007. Net eps for 2008 should hit 20 sen, and looking at the current share price of 94 sen, its a steal literally.
Why no action? Well, nobody seems to be following the stock for now. UEM owns 38%, the rest are pretty well spread. Although I am not a fan of sum-of-the-parts as a catalyst, its worth noting that the share has a SOTP of at least RM2.70 per share. Once UEM gets around to it, its a very brilliant privatisation. Maybe its so small to UEM now. Still, a bargain is a bargain. One of the major concerns was as to whether Faber's HFM concessions in the opposition-controlled northern states will be reviewed. The recent submission for approval for extension should assuage investors' fears.There is no target price, but buying below RM1.00 presents little risk. One should be able to reap at least 50% return when market perks back up to 1,400.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
skpres
On Mar 16, the Star carried an article on SKPRES. It gives a good introduction and I feel a decent analysis on the company. I recommend studying the article to supplement your research on SKPRES. My comments are numbered and marked in square brackets below.
____________
Friday March 16, 2007
SKP Resources eyes double-digit growth
By Izwan Idris
PETALING JAYA: Penny stocks offer a cheaper entry cost for investors [1], hence their popularity among retailers. It is also interesting to look at some of these companies, which are actually worth more than a punt.
SKP Resources Bhd, a Johor-based maker of plastic parts used in many consumer electronic gadgets like high-end television sets, in-car entertainment units and satellite radio receivers.
Its clients include household names like Sharp, Pioneer and Dyson.
SKP Resources' most recent quarter ended Dec 31 saw a 70% jump in net profits to RM4.8mil, or 0.8 sen per share. The company made a net profit RM2.8mil, or 0.47 sen per share, in the previous corresponding period.
“The third quarter was a record for the group. We also had a good start in 2007 and we hope to at least match the results in the last quarter (ending March 31),'' executive director Ivan Gan Poh San told StarBiz recently.
He said the strong performance was largely attributed to the group's expanded operations.
SKP Resources acquired rival SPI Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd in a RM30mil deal [2]completed in August last year.
The company had also completed a new factory in Senai during the year, which gives its an additional 176,000 sq ft of floor space.
“The acquisition and the new factory had given a lot of room for future expansion,'' Gan said. “With that, we don't expect to make huge capital investment over the next three years [3].”
SKP Resources had also benefitted from the trend among large multinationals to move their low-end manufacturing base to Vietnam or China, while existing factories in Malaysia shifted towards premium products [4].
“Margins are improving with better cost control [5] and, at the same time, we are now able to offer value-added services like product design and customisation of certain products,'' Gan said.
Items produced by SKP Resources include components for liquid crystal display TVs and some 200,000 sets of digital or satellite radio receivers bound for the US market every month [6].
“Our target is to register a healthy double-digit growth over the next two to three years [7],'' Gan said.
Assuming that SKP Resources would be able to repeat the performance in the last quarter, the stock is valued at around seven times [8] its estimated earnings for the financial ending March 31. (FY07).
For the nine months ended Dec 31, 2006 net profit had risen 36% to RM10.8mil, or 1.8 sen per share, on sales worth RM119mil. The results year-to-date have already surpassed the group's performance for the whole of FY06.
The stock gained 1 sen to 16.5 sen yesterday. It has risen 28% for the year and hit a 52-week high of 25 sen on Feb 22.
But it would probably take a few more quarters of rising profits for SKP Resources, with a market capitalisation of RM100mil, to attract the attention of big investors and institutional funds [9].
In the mean time, the stock's growth outlook and decent valuations make it a bargain for those willing to take a bet on a promising small cap play.
______________
Comments
[1] "Penny stocks offer a cheaper entry cost for investors".
Comments: Whilst this does not affect SKPRES Intrinsic Value, it is worth mentioning briefly that penny stocks do NOT really offer a "cheaper entry cost". However, what it does offer is "excitement". Significant profits (e.g. 10%) can be had with what might incorrectly be perceived as small increase in prices over a relatively short period (e.g. a "small" 2 sen increase from $0.17 to $0.19). However, one must always take into account trading expenses (both buy and sell) into any profit calculations. If you don't understand all this, my advise is to avoid penny stocks - the odds of you losing money is higher if you don't understand all this.
[2] "...acquired rival SPI Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd in a RM30mil deal..."
Personally, I like the acquisition for several reasons. 1. The price paid is equivalent to just 6 times earnings, which is slightly cheaper than current SKPRES P/E of 7. 2. It is a good use of surplus cash which doesn't earn anywhere near the potential earnings yield of 16%. 3. The acquisition also enables SKPRES to diversify its earnings base, as the acquired company is largely domestic, whereas SKPRES earnings appears to be largely overseas. 4. The acquisition also removes a competitor domestically. 5. The acquired company is confident enough to provide a profit guarantee of $5M per year for the next 2 years, which makes the investment safer.
[3] "...we don't expect to make huge capital investment over the next three years .. "
Again, I find this very comforting - especially from a cash flow perspective - as the recent cash acquisition has significantly reduced the coy's cash holdings, and one might be rightly concerned if a coy has plans to further expand via huge debts (think MEGAN, although different business model).
[4] "...existing factories in Malaysia shifted towards premium products ..."
Normally, I find this sort of comments neutral. There are some companies that succeeds in the shift (i.e. raise both revenue and margins), and many more that don't (resulting in overall reduced PAT as revenue fall does not match increased margins). Personally, I like to see some evidence of net profit increasing in $ terms (and so far, it has).
[5] "...better cost control... "
A quick glance at the most recent quarter results showed higher PBT% than in the past few quarters, but I haven't really investigate in detail the financial statements to see if these has indeed been achieved via better cost controls (such as reduction in staff cost, etc). However, there seems to be no serious reason to doubt company management's claims.
[6] "...receivers bound for the US market every month... "
With strengthening RM, and possibly weaker US economy, there could be risks that SKPRES earnings could be adversely affected going forward. But I like the recent domestic acquisition which should increase and diversify its earnings base, mitigating this risk somewhat.
[7] "...target is to register a healthy double-digit growth over the next two to three years..."
For the next 9-12 months, I am quite certain that the coy will achieve double-digit growth, just from the recent acquisition alone. The challenge will be after that, if it has no more acquisition, as future growth will then depend on organic growth. The recent factory expansion which is expected to meet its growing needs over the next 2-3 years should give the company good odds of achieving their target. Given the relatively good odds, for the company to trade at a low single-digit P/E of 7 seems to suggest a significant mispricing.
[8] "...stock is valued at around seven times..."
At $0.185, SKPRES is now trading at slightly over 7 times. But FYE2007 only takes into account 2 quarters of recent acquisition results, and virtually nothing on its future growth prospects. Using a conservative FYE2008 which simply takes into account the full 4 quarters of recent acquisition results suggests a P/E of less than 7.
[9] "...attract the attention of big investors and institutional funds ..."
There's no doubt that should there be one large fund buying SKPRES, the only way the price can go is UP. I think, with current attention focussing on the big caps, it might take a (long?) while before the market shifts its attention to undervalued small caps. To be honest, I don't know exactly when - safer to assume it could be a very, very long wait, and not bet the house.
It's also quite possible that syndicates might not touch this stock, if this stock is a candidate for institutional investors - they might get cornered themselves, as they try to corner innocent retailers.
POTENTIAL RISKS
Like all stock investments, owning SKPRES has its own risks too. Some of the risks I perceive include:
1. Intrinsic value related risks ... e.g. possible increase in raw material prices for plastics. RM appreciation, reducing either the price competitiveness of its products in the US markets or its margins. Possible loss of key customers if not competitive. Etc. These are real risks, and much depends on management to control the controllable items and mitigate the risks as much as possible. So far, I like what I see - good use of cash, general avoidance of debt, sound acquisition at an attractive price, sound pace of business expansion, etc. And I like what the coy has achieved so far in the last 8 quarters. Whilst there are no guarantees in the stock market, I like the odds personally. (Remember to diversify, and don't over-trade).
2. Penny-stock reputation. Whilst penny stocks are popular with retailers, I won't be surprised if the vast majority of SKPRES owners in Bursa Malaysia don't really care a hoot about the underlying business behind the blinking ticker. I suspect "Buy and hold" investors might need to wait for a very long time, before the market appreciates its intrinsic value. I think shorter-term traders would fare much better with this stock, buying at the low end of the trading "box" and selling at the higher end of the trading box. Those who believes in its fundamentals may also do better by trading say half of their holdings in this manner. However, if you are a value investor who cannot identify the trading box (and they will vary over time), nor have the time nor inclination to watch the ticker symbol all day, then, my advise is don't buy this stock - there are much better value stocks around that will permit one to Buy and Hold, and sleep well at night. There are also risks with the syndicates "cooking" the price of the stock in order to profit from retailers, but I suspect that's what excites most experienced short term traders as the profit opportunities are bigger.
3. Possible lower interest and lower liquidity in future, as future profit opportunities get squeezed from having more better-informed investors, leaving retailers and syndicates to prefer other less sound, more exciting stocks with greater profit opportunities ...
CONCLUSION
I've read somewhere that it is unfair for any writer to give a stock a Buy recommendation, simply because when it comes to selling time, the writer is often unable to call a Sell recommendation in a timely enough manner to protect the owners who followed him. And since this is more of a trading idea than a "buy and hold" idea, I don't feel comfortable calling a Buy below a certain price, simply because I expect the trading boxes will change over time. So, this one, you're on your own.
____________
Friday March 16, 2007
SKP Resources eyes double-digit growth
By Izwan Idris
PETALING JAYA: Penny stocks offer a cheaper entry cost for investors [1], hence their popularity among retailers. It is also interesting to look at some of these companies, which are actually worth more than a punt.
SKP Resources Bhd, a Johor-based maker of plastic parts used in many consumer electronic gadgets like high-end television sets, in-car entertainment units and satellite radio receivers.
Its clients include household names like Sharp, Pioneer and Dyson.
SKP Resources' most recent quarter ended Dec 31 saw a 70% jump in net profits to RM4.8mil, or 0.8 sen per share. The company made a net profit RM2.8mil, or 0.47 sen per share, in the previous corresponding period.
“The third quarter was a record for the group. We also had a good start in 2007 and we hope to at least match the results in the last quarter (ending March 31),'' executive director Ivan Gan Poh San told StarBiz recently.
He said the strong performance was largely attributed to the group's expanded operations.
SKP Resources acquired rival SPI Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd in a RM30mil deal [2]completed in August last year.
The company had also completed a new factory in Senai during the year, which gives its an additional 176,000 sq ft of floor space.
“The acquisition and the new factory had given a lot of room for future expansion,'' Gan said. “With that, we don't expect to make huge capital investment over the next three years [3].”
SKP Resources had also benefitted from the trend among large multinationals to move their low-end manufacturing base to Vietnam or China, while existing factories in Malaysia shifted towards premium products [4].
“Margins are improving with better cost control [5] and, at the same time, we are now able to offer value-added services like product design and customisation of certain products,'' Gan said.
Items produced by SKP Resources include components for liquid crystal display TVs and some 200,000 sets of digital or satellite radio receivers bound for the US market every month [6].
“Our target is to register a healthy double-digit growth over the next two to three years [7],'' Gan said.
Assuming that SKP Resources would be able to repeat the performance in the last quarter, the stock is valued at around seven times [8] its estimated earnings for the financial ending March 31. (FY07).
For the nine months ended Dec 31, 2006 net profit had risen 36% to RM10.8mil, or 1.8 sen per share, on sales worth RM119mil. The results year-to-date have already surpassed the group's performance for the whole of FY06.
The stock gained 1 sen to 16.5 sen yesterday. It has risen 28% for the year and hit a 52-week high of 25 sen on Feb 22.
But it would probably take a few more quarters of rising profits for SKP Resources, with a market capitalisation of RM100mil, to attract the attention of big investors and institutional funds [9].
In the mean time, the stock's growth outlook and decent valuations make it a bargain for those willing to take a bet on a promising small cap play.
______________
Comments
[1] "Penny stocks offer a cheaper entry cost for investors".
Comments: Whilst this does not affect SKPRES Intrinsic Value, it is worth mentioning briefly that penny stocks do NOT really offer a "cheaper entry cost". However, what it does offer is "excitement". Significant profits (e.g. 10%) can be had with what might incorrectly be perceived as small increase in prices over a relatively short period (e.g. a "small" 2 sen increase from $0.17 to $0.19). However, one must always take into account trading expenses (both buy and sell) into any profit calculations. If you don't understand all this, my advise is to avoid penny stocks - the odds of you losing money is higher if you don't understand all this.
[2] "...acquired rival SPI Plastic Industries Sdn Bhd in a RM30mil deal..."
Personally, I like the acquisition for several reasons. 1. The price paid is equivalent to just 6 times earnings, which is slightly cheaper than current SKPRES P/E of 7. 2. It is a good use of surplus cash which doesn't earn anywhere near the potential earnings yield of 16%. 3. The acquisition also enables SKPRES to diversify its earnings base, as the acquired company is largely domestic, whereas SKPRES earnings appears to be largely overseas. 4. The acquisition also removes a competitor domestically. 5. The acquired company is confident enough to provide a profit guarantee of $5M per year for the next 2 years, which makes the investment safer.
[3] "...we don't expect to make huge capital investment over the next three years .. "
Again, I find this very comforting - especially from a cash flow perspective - as the recent cash acquisition has significantly reduced the coy's cash holdings, and one might be rightly concerned if a coy has plans to further expand via huge debts (think MEGAN, although different business model).
[4] "...existing factories in Malaysia shifted towards premium products ..."
Normally, I find this sort of comments neutral. There are some companies that succeeds in the shift (i.e. raise both revenue and margins), and many more that don't (resulting in overall reduced PAT as revenue fall does not match increased margins). Personally, I like to see some evidence of net profit increasing in $ terms (and so far, it has).
[5] "...better cost control... "
A quick glance at the most recent quarter results showed higher PBT% than in the past few quarters, but I haven't really investigate in detail the financial statements to see if these has indeed been achieved via better cost controls (such as reduction in staff cost, etc). However, there seems to be no serious reason to doubt company management's claims.
[6] "...receivers bound for the US market every month... "
With strengthening RM, and possibly weaker US economy, there could be risks that SKPRES earnings could be adversely affected going forward. But I like the recent domestic acquisition which should increase and diversify its earnings base, mitigating this risk somewhat.
[7] "...target is to register a healthy double-digit growth over the next two to three years..."
For the next 9-12 months, I am quite certain that the coy will achieve double-digit growth, just from the recent acquisition alone. The challenge will be after that, if it has no more acquisition, as future growth will then depend on organic growth. The recent factory expansion which is expected to meet its growing needs over the next 2-3 years should give the company good odds of achieving their target. Given the relatively good odds, for the company to trade at a low single-digit P/E of 7 seems to suggest a significant mispricing.
[8] "...stock is valued at around seven times..."
At $0.185, SKPRES is now trading at slightly over 7 times. But FYE2007 only takes into account 2 quarters of recent acquisition results, and virtually nothing on its future growth prospects. Using a conservative FYE2008 which simply takes into account the full 4 quarters of recent acquisition results suggests a P/E of less than 7.
[9] "...attract the attention of big investors and institutional funds ..."
There's no doubt that should there be one large fund buying SKPRES, the only way the price can go is UP. I think, with current attention focussing on the big caps, it might take a (long?) while before the market shifts its attention to undervalued small caps. To be honest, I don't know exactly when - safer to assume it could be a very, very long wait, and not bet the house.
It's also quite possible that syndicates might not touch this stock, if this stock is a candidate for institutional investors - they might get cornered themselves, as they try to corner innocent retailers.
POTENTIAL RISKS
Like all stock investments, owning SKPRES has its own risks too. Some of the risks I perceive include:
1. Intrinsic value related risks ... e.g. possible increase in raw material prices for plastics. RM appreciation, reducing either the price competitiveness of its products in the US markets or its margins. Possible loss of key customers if not competitive. Etc. These are real risks, and much depends on management to control the controllable items and mitigate the risks as much as possible. So far, I like what I see - good use of cash, general avoidance of debt, sound acquisition at an attractive price, sound pace of business expansion, etc. And I like what the coy has achieved so far in the last 8 quarters. Whilst there are no guarantees in the stock market, I like the odds personally. (Remember to diversify, and don't over-trade).
2. Penny-stock reputation. Whilst penny stocks are popular with retailers, I won't be surprised if the vast majority of SKPRES owners in Bursa Malaysia don't really care a hoot about the underlying business behind the blinking ticker. I suspect "Buy and hold" investors might need to wait for a very long time, before the market appreciates its intrinsic value. I think shorter-term traders would fare much better with this stock, buying at the low end of the trading "box" and selling at the higher end of the trading box. Those who believes in its fundamentals may also do better by trading say half of their holdings in this manner. However, if you are a value investor who cannot identify the trading box (and they will vary over time), nor have the time nor inclination to watch the ticker symbol all day, then, my advise is don't buy this stock - there are much better value stocks around that will permit one to Buy and Hold, and sleep well at night. There are also risks with the syndicates "cooking" the price of the stock in order to profit from retailers, but I suspect that's what excites most experienced short term traders as the profit opportunities are bigger.
3. Possible lower interest and lower liquidity in future, as future profit opportunities get squeezed from having more better-informed investors, leaving retailers and syndicates to prefer other less sound, more exciting stocks with greater profit opportunities ...
CONCLUSION
I've read somewhere that it is unfair for any writer to give a stock a Buy recommendation, simply because when it comes to selling time, the writer is often unable to call a Sell recommendation in a timely enough manner to protect the owners who followed him. And since this is more of a trading idea than a "buy and hold" idea, I don't feel comfortable calling a Buy below a certain price, simply because I expect the trading boxes will change over time. So, this one, you're on your own.
Friday, June 6, 2008
What is on the menu today?
Star
RUB - finally happens - RB & LOSB Cayman takeover balance 29.6% (87.17 mil ) shares @ 3.50. This is 12.2% or 38 sen above closing price of 3.12. Net assets @ 31 Mar is 4.59.
Kencana - hits month high i.e. +6sen to 1.98. expectations of setting up new fabrication yard in Damman Saudi Arabia earlier rather than at year end.
HeiTech - talk of being takeover target by PNB +10sen to 1.37. PNB accumulating shares since Mar this year. 1Q profit 4.4 mil or 4.37 sen, net asset 1.81.
SG
SKPres (3/6/08) - I bought @ 0.165 with PE around 5, it is now traded at 0.135 , d dip is only 15% as compared to Gpacket with dip more than 180% !!U may say, of course lah..yr skpres is only 16cts mah.. well..ok!Then take a look at my Mahsing n Hiaptek ..ok ?FYI, from my old posting as per attached, u can see that I hv made 11K+ from mahsing n 600+ on Hiaptek , let presume i did not sell them off n hold until now , let check it out !Bought Mah sing @ 1.739 (PE 9 ) n
Hiaptek @ 1.94 (PE 8 ) .today price Mahsing at current price = 1.51 (falled 13% ) Hiaptek at current price = 1.79 (falled 7.7% )Gpacket at current price = 1.51 (falled >180% )
EPIC (2/6/08) - is currently trading at only nine times FY2008 earnings and four times EV/Ebitda (enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), the cheapest among the oil and gas companies in term of PER. Based on a 15 times multiple on an unchanged FY2008 earnings estimate, its FV should be around 3.60+.NTA 1.70 P/NTA 1.2ROE %= 12%With its FV of 3.60 ,I hv huge margin of safety for buying EPIC at 1.99 even if d insider news turn in to "False Alarm "^V^ btw, what if d take over news come into existance !??
ytlpowerwr @ 0.65 (26/5/08) :-Yr cost 0.65 + 0.10conversion price = 1.25expiry date 10 yearsmom = 2.100.65 + 0.10 +1.25 - 2.10= (0.10 or with discount of 4.7% * 0.10/2.10 x100%= 4.7%*) it is discount by 10cts ! dont 4get d time factor as i mentioned above !Look at YTLpower wa = 0.86 , conversion price =1.35 , expiry date =8/1/2010 ( less than 2 years) 0.86 + 1.35 - 2.10 = 0.11 ( 0.11 / 2.10 x 100% = 5.2% premium )Let make a comparison, YTLpowerwr giving discount of 4.7 % with 10 years time frame as compared to Ytlpowerwa with premium 5.2% but going to be expired in less than 2 years !Based on < 50 =" 0.50.">Masteel (6/5/08) - is under commodity , @ 1.47 u r buying masteel @ PE 4+ !!! commodities r booming now.. how water liu liu she is @ anything below 1.50 !! besides Masteel.. dont forget another steel counter :-
Huaan @0.73+- also.. zero gearing n cash kow company traded @ PE 7 +, red chip from mainland with huge vol traded lately, not a gem 4 short n mid term hold ?
FusIn
Parkson (3/6/08)- Do try to study this schedule carefully since it's the heart of this article. This schedule needs interpretation. What it says is that at each price from $6 to $5.7, you buy 1,000 Parkson shares only. At $5.6 down to $5.3, you buy 2,000 shares. And at price 5.2 and 5.1, buy $3,000 shares. At $5, buy another 4000 shares. At 4.9, buy 6000 shares. At 4.8 buy 10,000 shares.In other words, you scale your entry in. Buying much larger amounts as prices fall.There are advantages and disadvantages with this approach. Start with advantages first.1. As price falls, you buy more and at an increasing rate as price gets lower without exhausting capital.
- In fact, at 4.8, the buy is 10,000 shares, much larger than all previous buys.
- If local Parkson price falls to $4.8, then, you should own 38,000 shares in total at a cost of $196,277, or 19.6% capital.
- The average price paid is $5.17 after commissions, which is near the low. (do appreciate this difference, since the average price between 4.8 and 6 is 5.4, which is higher than 5.17)
- And if Parkson price recovers to $6, then, the gain is 16%, or $31.7k, or 3.2% capital.
2. Chances are (no guarantees) - you shouldn’t need to execute your stop loss at $4.7 if Parkson HK remains above HKD50. Of course, do use a different figure and recalculate all this so that syndicates to run your stop. Consider setting the stop higher, so that if they do run it down to $4.7, then, you can buy it back cheaper. Or alternatively, set the stop lower than $4.7 so that they won’t think of running the price down to $4. Basically keep them guessing.
3. Even if you need to execute your stop at $4.7, you have preset the maximum loss to $20k. In fact, it turns out that it is $18.6k, or just 1.86% capital.
4. The Reward to Risk potential is good – a respectable 1.7 times and this is already net of commissions. If the loss is not executed, and price recovers, the trade is profitable, with low risk of loss.
5. The small buys starting from $6 is designed to keep your "itch" to buy in check. Basically, you don't buy big at high prices, but small at high prices, and it scratches the strong itch to buy.
SAPCRES (23/4/08) - comes into mind, and many of you probably have seen me Fu-Yoh-ing many times as prices keep going up from $1.31 onwards :-) And SAPCRES has done very well, going from $1 to $1.67 at lunch time. That's an amazing gain of 67% and a tremendous amount of energy has gone into this stock. Does it mean it will end? Well, that's hard to say. I still have SAPCRES at the time of writing, bought at various prices on the way up, but when we look forward, it's hard to say that we are going to see another 67% gain from $1.67. In other words, the easy gains have been had, and now, probably it will get harder.
taking SAPCRES and closing prices as example. Sapcres reached a peak of $2.59 (closing price) on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.02 (closing price) on 17 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 65% to $1.67 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, Sapcres has regained 41% of the fall from the peak.
EPIC - reached a peak of $3.20 on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.67 on 10 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 18% to $1.97 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, EPIC has regained only 20% of the fall from the peak.You can see that both numbers for EPIC - 18% regain vs 65% regain for SAPCRES, and 20% vs 41% shows that EPIC is not a leading O&G stocks like Sapcres. Sapcres is leader, EPIC is laggard. But if the high crude oil prices story remain good for the rest of this year, then, maybe, from a forward looking perspective, it might just be a matter of time before the 2nd tier stocks starts to follow. IF this happens, then, you might find EPIC returns to be more interesting from a forward looking perspective, due to its current "lower" price.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
1. Last TTM (Trailing 12 Months) Earnings = $30.7 Million, representing 299% growth over the prior year. That's nice to see, and when Crude Oil prices rise further, one can only be optimistic that the figures should eventually be higher than this.
2. Last quarter earnings annualized is $6.8 M x 4 = $27.2 Million. I normally look at this figure and compare against 1 to see if there might be signs of slowing down, and there seems to be a slight indication there, indicating that EPIC might not be "risk free". In fact, there is no such thing as a "risk free" stock.
3. Using 1, EPIC trades at a P/E of 10.8, using $1.97 price. This is actually quite reasonable and not expensive at all for an O&G stock where the sector trades at a much higher P/E.
4. EPIC has a nice Net Cash position of $80M at last Balance Sheet date. That's nearly 47 sen per share. Again, it doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a nice head start. The Net of Cash or the Business P/E is priced quite attractively at around 8, making it even more attractive.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
TurInv
Parkson (2/6/08) - after waiting for 2.5 months. I made the first entry about Parkson by examined the macro picture in March 15. The next day, I wrote a brief entry about Parkson. I was a bit unlucky because Parkson went on sales around $ 5.40 - $ 6.00 but having insufficient funds. I told myself between discipline and making money, I prefer to preserve discipline. Parkson continue to deliver earnings at high growth rate bring down valuations quickly. Learned something new, when a stock has presence in many countries, volatility will jump cause by good news or bad news. If something were to happen in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam or Malaysia, news may move price, could be very wild too. Two negative catalysts had brought down the price so far (i) disappointments by Hong Kong investors (ii) Vietnam stock market turbulence. Will there be a third negative catalyst to bring the stock down another 10%? It may well could happen but I don't know. You may notice that I don't use that much of technical analysis. I derive my entry price largely by valuation and observe general pessimisms. I'm happy being approximately right - if the price goes down more than 15%, I know I bought too early.When I saw Parkson opened around $6.10 this morning, I figured out with 5% intra-day volatility could bring the price down to $ 5.80. So just ordered 500 shares at $5.80 and went on to work
5. The small buys starting from $6 is designed to keep your "itch" to buy in check. Basically, you don't buy big at high prices, but small at high prices, and it scratches the strong itch to buy.
SAPCRES (23/4/08) - comes into mind, and many of you probably have seen me Fu-Yoh-ing many times as prices keep going up from $1.31 onwards :-) And SAPCRES has done very well, going from $1 to $1.67 at lunch time. That's an amazing gain of 67% and a tremendous amount of energy has gone into this stock. Does it mean it will end? Well, that's hard to say. I still have SAPCRES at the time of writing, bought at various prices on the way up, but when we look forward, it's hard to say that we are going to see another 67% gain from $1.67. In other words, the easy gains have been had, and now, probably it will get harder.
taking SAPCRES and closing prices as example. Sapcres reached a peak of $2.59 (closing price) on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.02 (closing price) on 17 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 65% to $1.67 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, Sapcres has regained 41% of the fall from the peak.
EPIC - reached a peak of $3.20 on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.67 on 10 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 18% to $1.97 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, EPIC has regained only 20% of the fall from the peak.You can see that both numbers for EPIC - 18% regain vs 65% regain for SAPCRES, and 20% vs 41% shows that EPIC is not a leading O&G stocks like Sapcres. Sapcres is leader, EPIC is laggard. But if the high crude oil prices story remain good for the rest of this year, then, maybe, from a forward looking perspective, it might just be a matter of time before the 2nd tier stocks starts to follow. IF this happens, then, you might find EPIC returns to be more interesting from a forward looking perspective, due to its current "lower" price.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
1. Last TTM (Trailing 12 Months) Earnings = $30.7 Million, representing 299% growth over the prior year. That's nice to see, and when Crude Oil prices rise further, one can only be optimistic that the figures should eventually be higher than this.
2. Last quarter earnings annualized is $6.8 M x 4 = $27.2 Million. I normally look at this figure and compare against 1 to see if there might be signs of slowing down, and there seems to be a slight indication there, indicating that EPIC might not be "risk free". In fact, there is no such thing as a "risk free" stock.
3. Using 1, EPIC trades at a P/E of 10.8, using $1.97 price. This is actually quite reasonable and not expensive at all for an O&G stock where the sector trades at a much higher P/E.
4. EPIC has a nice Net Cash position of $80M at last Balance Sheet date. That's nearly 47 sen per share. Again, it doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a nice head start. The Net of Cash or the Business P/E is priced quite attractively at around 8, making it even more attractive.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
TurInv
Parkson (2/6/08) - after waiting for 2.5 months. I made the first entry about Parkson by examined the macro picture in March 15. The next day, I wrote a brief entry about Parkson. I was a bit unlucky because Parkson went on sales around $ 5.40 - $ 6.00 but having insufficient funds. I told myself between discipline and making money, I prefer to preserve discipline. Parkson continue to deliver earnings at high growth rate bring down valuations quickly. Learned something new, when a stock has presence in many countries, volatility will jump cause by good news or bad news. If something were to happen in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam or Malaysia, news may move price, could be very wild too. Two negative catalysts had brought down the price so far (i) disappointments by Hong Kong investors (ii) Vietnam stock market turbulence. Will there be a third negative catalyst to bring the stock down another 10%? It may well could happen but I don't know. You may notice that I don't use that much of technical analysis. I derive my entry price largely by valuation and observe general pessimisms. I'm happy being approximately right - if the price goes down more than 15%, I know I bought too early.When I saw Parkson opened around $6.10 this morning, I figured out with 5% intra-day volatility could bring the price down to $ 5.80. So just ordered 500 shares at $5.80 and went on to work
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