Star
RUB - finally happens - RB & LOSB Cayman takeover balance 29.6% (87.17 mil ) shares @ 3.50. This is 12.2% or 38 sen above closing price of 3.12. Net assets @ 31 Mar is 4.59.
Kencana - hits month high i.e. +6sen to 1.98. expectations of setting up new fabrication yard in Damman Saudi Arabia earlier rather than at year end.
HeiTech - talk of being takeover target by PNB +10sen to 1.37. PNB accumulating shares since Mar this year. 1Q profit 4.4 mil or 4.37 sen, net asset 1.81.
SG
SKPres (3/6/08) - I bought @ 0.165 with PE around 5, it is now traded at 0.135 , d dip is only 15% as compared to Gpacket with dip more than 180% !!U may say, of course lah..yr skpres is only 16cts mah.. well..ok!Then take a look at my Mahsing n Hiaptek ..ok ?FYI, from my old posting as per attached, u can see that I hv made 11K+ from mahsing n 600+ on Hiaptek , let presume i did not sell them off n hold until now , let check it out !Bought Mah sing @ 1.739 (PE 9 ) n
Hiaptek @ 1.94 (PE 8 ) .today price Mahsing at current price = 1.51 (falled 13% ) Hiaptek at current price = 1.79 (falled 7.7% )Gpacket at current price = 1.51 (falled >180% )
EPIC (2/6/08) - is currently trading at only nine times FY2008 earnings and four times EV/Ebitda (enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), the cheapest among the oil and gas companies in term of PER. Based on a 15 times multiple on an unchanged FY2008 earnings estimate, its FV should be around 3.60+.NTA 1.70 P/NTA 1.2ROE %= 12%With its FV of 3.60 ,I hv huge margin of safety for buying EPIC at 1.99 even if d insider news turn in to "False Alarm "^V^ btw, what if d take over news come into existance !??
ytlpowerwr @ 0.65 (26/5/08) :-Yr cost 0.65 + 0.10conversion price = 1.25expiry date 10 yearsmom = 2.100.65 + 0.10 +1.25 - 2.10= (0.10 or with discount of 4.7% * 0.10/2.10 x100%= 4.7%*) it is discount by 10cts ! dont 4get d time factor as i mentioned above !Look at YTLpower wa = 0.86 , conversion price =1.35 , expiry date =8/1/2010 ( less than 2 years) 0.86 + 1.35 - 2.10 = 0.11 ( 0.11 / 2.10 x 100% = 5.2% premium )Let make a comparison, YTLpowerwr giving discount of 4.7 % with 10 years time frame as compared to Ytlpowerwa with premium 5.2% but going to be expired in less than 2 years !Based on < 50 =" 0.50.">Masteel (6/5/08) - is under commodity , @ 1.47 u r buying masteel @ PE 4+ !!! commodities r booming now.. how water liu liu she is @ anything below 1.50 !! besides Masteel.. dont forget another steel counter :-
Huaan @0.73+- also.. zero gearing n cash kow company traded @ PE 7 +, red chip from mainland with huge vol traded lately, not a gem 4 short n mid term hold ?
FusIn
Parkson (3/6/08)- Do try to study this schedule carefully since it's the heart of this article. This schedule needs interpretation. What it says is that at each price from $6 to $5.7, you buy 1,000 Parkson shares only. At $5.6 down to $5.3, you buy 2,000 shares. And at price 5.2 and 5.1, buy $3,000 shares. At $5, buy another 4000 shares. At 4.9, buy 6000 shares. At 4.8 buy 10,000 shares.In other words, you scale your entry in. Buying much larger amounts as prices fall.There are advantages and disadvantages with this approach. Start with advantages first.1. As price falls, you buy more and at an increasing rate as price gets lower without exhausting capital.
- In fact, at 4.8, the buy is 10,000 shares, much larger than all previous buys.
- If local Parkson price falls to $4.8, then, you should own 38,000 shares in total at a cost of $196,277, or 19.6% capital.
- The average price paid is $5.17 after commissions, which is near the low. (do appreciate this difference, since the average price between 4.8 and 6 is 5.4, which is higher than 5.17)
- And if Parkson price recovers to $6, then, the gain is 16%, or $31.7k, or 3.2% capital.
2. Chances are (no guarantees) - you shouldn’t need to execute your stop loss at $4.7 if Parkson HK remains above HKD50. Of course, do use a different figure and recalculate all this so that syndicates to run your stop. Consider setting the stop higher, so that if they do run it down to $4.7, then, you can buy it back cheaper. Or alternatively, set the stop lower than $4.7 so that they won’t think of running the price down to $4. Basically keep them guessing.
3. Even if you need to execute your stop at $4.7, you have preset the maximum loss to $20k. In fact, it turns out that it is $18.6k, or just 1.86% capital.
4. The Reward to Risk potential is good – a respectable 1.7 times and this is already net of commissions. If the loss is not executed, and price recovers, the trade is profitable, with low risk of loss.
5. The small buys starting from $6 is designed to keep your "itch" to buy in check. Basically, you don't buy big at high prices, but small at high prices, and it scratches the strong itch to buy.
SAPCRES (23/4/08) - comes into mind, and many of you probably have seen me Fu-Yoh-ing many times as prices keep going up from $1.31 onwards :-) And SAPCRES has done very well, going from $1 to $1.67 at lunch time. That's an amazing gain of 67% and a tremendous amount of energy has gone into this stock. Does it mean it will end? Well, that's hard to say. I still have SAPCRES at the time of writing, bought at various prices on the way up, but when we look forward, it's hard to say that we are going to see another 67% gain from $1.67. In other words, the easy gains have been had, and now, probably it will get harder.
taking SAPCRES and closing prices as example. Sapcres reached a peak of $2.59 (closing price) on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.02 (closing price) on 17 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 65% to $1.67 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, Sapcres has regained 41% of the fall from the peak.
EPIC - reached a peak of $3.20 on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.67 on 10 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 18% to $1.97 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, EPIC has regained only 20% of the fall from the peak.You can see that both numbers for EPIC - 18% regain vs 65% regain for SAPCRES, and 20% vs 41% shows that EPIC is not a leading O&G stocks like Sapcres. Sapcres is leader, EPIC is laggard. But if the high crude oil prices story remain good for the rest of this year, then, maybe, from a forward looking perspective, it might just be a matter of time before the 2nd tier stocks starts to follow. IF this happens, then, you might find EPIC returns to be more interesting from a forward looking perspective, due to its current "lower" price.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
1. Last TTM (Trailing 12 Months) Earnings = $30.7 Million, representing 299% growth over the prior year. That's nice to see, and when Crude Oil prices rise further, one can only be optimistic that the figures should eventually be higher than this.
2. Last quarter earnings annualized is $6.8 M x 4 = $27.2 Million. I normally look at this figure and compare against 1 to see if there might be signs of slowing down, and there seems to be a slight indication there, indicating that EPIC might not be "risk free". In fact, there is no such thing as a "risk free" stock.
3. Using 1, EPIC trades at a P/E of 10.8, using $1.97 price. This is actually quite reasonable and not expensive at all for an O&G stock where the sector trades at a much higher P/E.
4. EPIC has a nice Net Cash position of $80M at last Balance Sheet date. That's nearly 47 sen per share. Again, it doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a nice head start. The Net of Cash or the Business P/E is priced quite attractively at around 8, making it even more attractive.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
TurInv
Parkson (2/6/08) - after waiting for 2.5 months. I made the first entry about Parkson by examined the macro picture in March 15. The next day, I wrote a brief entry about Parkson. I was a bit unlucky because Parkson went on sales around $ 5.40 - $ 6.00 but having insufficient funds. I told myself between discipline and making money, I prefer to preserve discipline. Parkson continue to deliver earnings at high growth rate bring down valuations quickly. Learned something new, when a stock has presence in many countries, volatility will jump cause by good news or bad news. If something were to happen in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam or Malaysia, news may move price, could be very wild too. Two negative catalysts had brought down the price so far (i) disappointments by Hong Kong investors (ii) Vietnam stock market turbulence. Will there be a third negative catalyst to bring the stock down another 10%? It may well could happen but I don't know. You may notice that I don't use that much of technical analysis. I derive my entry price largely by valuation and observe general pessimisms. I'm happy being approximately right - if the price goes down more than 15%, I know I bought too early.When I saw Parkson opened around $6.10 this morning, I figured out with 5% intra-day volatility could bring the price down to $ 5.80. So just ordered 500 shares at $5.80 and went on to work
5. The small buys starting from $6 is designed to keep your "itch" to buy in check. Basically, you don't buy big at high prices, but small at high prices, and it scratches the strong itch to buy.
SAPCRES (23/4/08) - comes into mind, and many of you probably have seen me Fu-Yoh-ing many times as prices keep going up from $1.31 onwards :-) And SAPCRES has done very well, going from $1 to $1.67 at lunch time. That's an amazing gain of 67% and a tremendous amount of energy has gone into this stock. Does it mean it will end? Well, that's hard to say. I still have SAPCRES at the time of writing, bought at various prices on the way up, but when we look forward, it's hard to say that we are going to see another 67% gain from $1.67. In other words, the easy gains have been had, and now, probably it will get harder.
taking SAPCRES and closing prices as example. Sapcres reached a peak of $2.59 (closing price) on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.02 (closing price) on 17 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 65% to $1.67 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, Sapcres has regained 41% of the fall from the peak.
EPIC - reached a peak of $3.20 on 26 July 2007, then, fell to a low of $1.67 on 10 Mar 2008, before rebounding back by nearly 18% to $1.97 (lunch time today). In proportional terms, EPIC has regained only 20% of the fall from the peak.You can see that both numbers for EPIC - 18% regain vs 65% regain for SAPCRES, and 20% vs 41% shows that EPIC is not a leading O&G stocks like Sapcres. Sapcres is leader, EPIC is laggard. But if the high crude oil prices story remain good for the rest of this year, then, maybe, from a forward looking perspective, it might just be a matter of time before the 2nd tier stocks starts to follow. IF this happens, then, you might find EPIC returns to be more interesting from a forward looking perspective, due to its current "lower" price.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
1. Last TTM (Trailing 12 Months) Earnings = $30.7 Million, representing 299% growth over the prior year. That's nice to see, and when Crude Oil prices rise further, one can only be optimistic that the figures should eventually be higher than this.
2. Last quarter earnings annualized is $6.8 M x 4 = $27.2 Million. I normally look at this figure and compare against 1 to see if there might be signs of slowing down, and there seems to be a slight indication there, indicating that EPIC might not be "risk free". In fact, there is no such thing as a "risk free" stock.
3. Using 1, EPIC trades at a P/E of 10.8, using $1.97 price. This is actually quite reasonable and not expensive at all for an O&G stock where the sector trades at a much higher P/E.
4. EPIC has a nice Net Cash position of $80M at last Balance Sheet date. That's nearly 47 sen per share. Again, it doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a nice head start. The Net of Cash or the Business P/E is priced quite attractively at around 8, making it even more attractive.
Technically, chart-wise, EPIC price chart has that familiar W "double-bottom" shape. It looks like it's about to break-out / has broken out, although the volume isn't terribly convincing. This morning, the stock price inched forward, and now may be a good time to publish this article From a fundamental perspective, EPIC isn't too shabby either. Just a few stats and comments.
TurInv
Parkson (2/6/08) - after waiting for 2.5 months. I made the first entry about Parkson by examined the macro picture in March 15. The next day, I wrote a brief entry about Parkson. I was a bit unlucky because Parkson went on sales around $ 5.40 - $ 6.00 but having insufficient funds. I told myself between discipline and making money, I prefer to preserve discipline. Parkson continue to deliver earnings at high growth rate bring down valuations quickly. Learned something new, when a stock has presence in many countries, volatility will jump cause by good news or bad news. If something were to happen in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam or Malaysia, news may move price, could be very wild too. Two negative catalysts had brought down the price so far (i) disappointments by Hong Kong investors (ii) Vietnam stock market turbulence. Will there be a third negative catalyst to bring the stock down another 10%? It may well could happen but I don't know. You may notice that I don't use that much of technical analysis. I derive my entry price largely by valuation and observe general pessimisms. I'm happy being approximately right - if the price goes down more than 15%, I know I bought too early.When I saw Parkson opened around $6.10 this morning, I figured out with 5% intra-day volatility could bring the price down to $ 5.80. So just ordered 500 shares at $5.80 and went on to work
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